Understanding The PATTERN Risk Assessment

When the First Step Act was enacted, it mandated that the Bureau of Prisons create a Risk and Needs Assessment Program that would determine; 

1. the risk of recidivism of an individual upon entering the prison system and for threes years after release, and;
2. to create and revise Recidivism Reduction Programming an individual would need to help reduce their risk of recidivism. 

Through laws enacted by the FSA, an Independent Review Committee was created and over a period of several years the current version of the PATTERN Tool (v1.3) was released in March, 2023 and is currently in use at all BOP facilities.

When an individual is sentenced, staff at the Designations and Sentence Computation Center (DSCC) in Grand Prairie, Texas perform an initial assessment of the individual for purposes of determining where they will serve his/her sentence (called “designation”). The DSCC staff review information from the U.S. Probation Office and the U.S. Marshals Service, including the Judgement and Commitment Order, the Statement of Reasons, and the Presentence Investigation Report. The DSCC staff may also receive information from the U.S. Attorney’s Office or Department component that prosecuted the individual. DSCC staff use this information to enter the individual into the BOP’s inmate management system and conduct the initial security scoring (via the Inmate Load and Security Designation Form). Subject-matter experts at the DSCC (including medical staff and clinical psychologists) also perform a preliminary review of the inmate’s needs with regard to medical, mental health, and criminogenic programming, which may influence the designation decision. As part of the FSA implementation and in addition to the designation steps listed above, DSCC staff, with assistance from BOP Legal staff, use the Risk and Needs Assessment System to assign each incoming individual an initial recidivism risk level of Minimum, Low, Medium or High. This Risk Level Classification is the initial PATTERN Risk Level assigned to an inmate.

Once the inmate arrives at his or her designated facility, he or she is assessed again as part of intake in the Receiving and Discharge area. Within the first twenty-eight days of incarceration, the inmate has an initial interview by his or her Unit Management Team (comprised of the Unit Manager, Case Manager, and Correctional Counselor). Additionally, the inmate is seen by medical staff (which may include an exam) and mental health staff to determine initial treatment needs. Every inmate also participates in the Admissions and Orientation program, which is designed to familiarize inmates with the facility, including the rules and procedures, typical schedules for operations and visiting, and available programs and services offered. Unit Management Team staff will interview the inmate to determine and assign any required programs (e.g., the GED program). This is typically the first time that an inmate is notified of his/her PATTERN Risk Level Classification.

The PATTERN Tool that an inmate sees is a simple reporting mechanism that details what an inmate has done in the past and what the inmate is doing while incarcerated. The data that is reported shows both Static measures (data that cannot be chanced) and Dynamic measures (data that an inmate has control over). There are 14 measures in the MALE PATTERN report, 6 Static Measures and 8 Dynamic Measures. There are 13 measures in the FEMALE PATTERN report with 5 Static and 8 Dynamic measures. The PATTERN Tool measures are listed below:

• Current age. The number of years between the assessment date and the individual’s date of birth, rounded down. This variable is then converted into six ordinal categories: 25 and younger, 26 to 29, 30 to 40, 41 to 50, 51 to 60, or 61 and older. STATIC

• Walsh with conviction. An identification as a sex offender based on the Adam Walsh Act criteria. (MALE PATTERN ONLY) STATIC

• Violent offense. A current conviction for a violent offense, including but not limited to firearms violations, homicide, child abuse, robbery, sex trafficking, and sexual assault. STATIC

• Criminal history points. The number of criminal history points taken from the most recent BRAVO available. This variable is then converted into six ordinal categories: 0 to 1 point, 2 to 3 points, 4 to 6 points, 7 to 9 points, 10 to 12 points, or 13 or more points. STATIC

• History of escapes. The number of years from last escape attempt by seriousness taken from the most recent BRAVO available. This variable is then converted into four ordinal categories: None, greater than 10 years minor, 5 to 10 years minor, or less than 5 years minor or any serious. STATIC

• History of violence. The number of years from last act of violence by seriousness taken from the most recent BRAVO available. This variable is then converted into eight ordinal categories: None, greater than 10 years minor, greater than 15 years serious, 5 to 10 years minor, 10 to 15 years serious, less than 5 years minor, 5 to 10 years serious, or less than 5 years serious. STATIC

• Education status. The highest grade level completed. This variable is then converted into three ordinal categories: High school degree or GED, enrolled and progressing in GED program, or no verified degree and not participating in GED program. DYNAMIC

• Drug program status. This measure combines two sources of information: (1) Identification of a substance abuse problem from the most recent BRAVO available and (2) completion of residential or nonresidential drug programming during the current incarceration. This variable is then converted into four ordinal categories: No drug need indicated, completed residential drug treatment, completed nonresidential drug treatment, or need indicated but no drug treatment completed. DYNAMIC

• All incident reports. The number of guilty incident reports within the past 120 months following one’s incarceration date. This does not include incident reports occurring during pretrial, holdover, or from prior BOP incarcerations. The variable is then converted into four ordinal categories: No incident, 1 incident, 2 incidents, or 3 or more incidents. DYNAMIC

• Serious incident reports. The number of guilty serious and violent incident reports within the past 120 months following one’s incarceration date. This does not include incident reports occurring during pretrial, holdover, or from prior BOP incarcerations. The number of incidents is then converted into four ordinal categories: No incident, 1 incident, 2 incidents, or 3 or more incidents. (MALE PATTERN ONLY) DYNAMIC

• Time since last incident report. The number of months between the assessment date and the date of the most recent incident report, rounded down. Only incidents from the current incarceration are counted. This variable is then converted into four ordinal categories: 12+ months or no incident, 7 to 12 months, 3 to 6 months, or less than 3 months. DYNAMIC

• Time since last serious incident report. The number of months between the assessment date and the date of most the recent serious or violent incident report, rounded down. Only incidents from the current incarceration are counted. This variable is then converted into four ordinal categories: 12+ months or no incident, 7 to 12 months, 3 to 6 months, or less than 3 months. (FEMALE PATTERN ONLY) DYNAMIC

• Financial responsibility refuse. Noncompliance with financial responsibility during incarceration for payment toward victim restitution and dependents. DYNAMIC

• Programs completed. The number of ACE, BRAVE, Challenge, Drug Education, Life Connections, Parenting, Skills, Sex Offender Residential Treatment, Sex Offender Non-Residential Treatment, STAGES, and Step Down courses successfully completed during the current incarceration. This variable is then converted into five ordinal categories: No program, 1 program, 2 to 3 programs, 4 to 10 programs, or 11 or more programs. DYNAMIC

• Work programs completed. The number of technical and vocational courses completed during the current incarceration. In this measure, federal industry employment (UNICOR) is counted as a program completion if the individual worked at least one day. This variable is then converted into three ordinal categories: No program, 1 program, or 2 or more programs. DYNAMIC

The PATTERN Tool is important to an inmate as this tool is one of the measures that determines whether or not an inmate is allowed to apply First Step Act Earned Time Credits towards an early release to Supervised Release and Halfway House/Home Confinement. Only those inmates who measure an overall Low or Minimum Risk of Recidivism in the PATTERN Tool are eligible to utilize this benefit. Inmates who maintain a Low or Minimum rating can earn 10 days per month towards an early release to Supervised release. Additionally, an inmate who, over the course of the last two assessments can earn an additional 5 days towards early release provided there is no increase in their PATTERN Risk Rating. Note that the Overall PATTERN Risk Level Classification is the higher of the General/Violent PATTERN Score.

An inmate in the Medium and High Risk Rating of the PATTERN Tool can still earn time credits, however, they must appeal to the Warden and receive approval a request to use those time credits towards a reduction in the sentence or an early release to a Halfway House/Home Confinement. Any denial of the request results in the inability to capitalize on the time credits.

Why is this important for you to know? Immediately after your being found guilty or plea agreement and change of plea hearing, you will be contacted by the United States Probation Office to schedule a Pre-Sentence Investigation hearing. During this meeting, the interviewer will ask for quite a bit of information about your past. Information collected in this interview will be used to prepare the Pre-Sentence Report (PSR) used at sentencing as well as by the Bureau of Prisons to determine your Risk Level Classification. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT ALL OF THE INFORMATION YOU REPORT IS CORRECT AND ACCURATE. Incorrect information within the PSR can come back to haunt you and quite possibly place you in a higher Risk Level Classification. As stated earlier, a higher classification could put you into an ineligible status for using FSA Earned Time Credits towards an early release.

It should be noted that PATTERN v1.3 does have faults. It is mathematically impossible for a male inmate in the <26 Year age measure to ever obtain a Minimum Risk Level rating (think 18 Year Old Male with a 5 year sentence). Furthermore, those locations that do not have a Federal Prison Industry (UNICOR) option or vocational training cannot enjoy the benefits of a reduction in PATTERN Risk Level rating. Finally, the BOP states that it includes Living Skills, Family/Community Ties and Percentage of Time Served as part of the assessment, however this is not reflected anywhere in the PATTERN Tool Report nor captured in any of the 13 or 14 measures.